The price of non-ferrous metals in the first half of 2017 and the forecast for the second half of 2017
The price of non-ferrous metals in the first half of 2017 and the forecast for the second half of 2017:
Basic nonferrous metals after bottoming out in 2016, the first half of 2017, copper, lead, zinc, NieDou show up after down first, and then on June 14, the federal reserve announced after the second time this year, there is a rising wave of rapid rebound;Aluminum price concussion rise, tin price high concussion.Specific data are as follows: as of June 30, LME copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, nickel price changes were 6.91%, 12.98%, 14.25%, 8.30%, -8.13%, -6.36%.Several kinds of gains in the base metal to metal, lead and aluminum prices rose 14.25% and 12.98%, respectively, nickel and tin prices fell, fell 8.13% and 6.36% respectively (January 3, 2017 to June 30, 2017 closing price).
The second half of non-ferrous metal price trend analysis.
Copper: the supply gap supports copper prices.
According to the latest forecast issued by the international copper research group (ICSG) in April, the global supply of refined copper in 2017 is 237.48 million tons, and the demand for refined copper is 23.895 million tons, and the global market is short of 147,000 tons.In the report released in October 2016, ICSG said that the global supply of refined copper in 2017 was 23.79 million tons, the global demand for refined copper was 23.63 million tons, and the global market supply was over 163,000 tons.Forecasts for supply have fallen (especially in the first half of 2017, when several of the world's biggest copper producers are on strike, with a significant impact on global copper supplies).Chile's Escondida copper mine in early February, the world's largest copper mine continue to strike for more than 40 days, march the first big copper CerroVerde Peru copper strike, which has the world's second largest copper mine copper mine has suffered from the Indonesian government export restrictions and workers went on strike, the above events led to the 2017 global copper supply about 300000 tons) and promotion for the forecast of demand, lead to the shortage of market expanding.
Mining investment has slowed in recent years as a result of falling metals prices and a weaker than expected production of new mines.From the perspective of supply and demand, therefore, copper good fundamentals, and because of the global economy, the demand will continue to grow, and supply growth is slightly smaller than the demand, supply gap expanded to copper form a strong support.
Aluminum: supply-side reform is expected to continue to push up aluminum prices.
According to the international aluminum association (IAI) data, the global aluminum production in 2016 was 58.87 million tons, with a consumption of 59.6 million tons and a shortage of 730,000 tons.China's electrolytic aluminum production is 32.5 million tons and consumption is 32.70 million tons, and it is short of 200,000 tons.
Global aluminum prices fell sharply in 2015, causing prices to fall below the cash cost. In December 2015, 14 key aluminum smelters in the country announced production cuts and pledged not to restart production capacity.Due to the high cost of the restarting of electrolytic aluminum, the combined production reduction will be a substantial reduction in the short-term supply of electrolytic aluminum.The decline in Chinese production has changed the domestic supply and demand relationship. In 2016, domestic aluminum prices rebounded sharply, and the spot aluminum price rose to 15380 yuan/ton, and the maximum rebound rate was 58%.
Due to the improvement in the profitability of electrolytic aluminum enterprises, the supply of raw aluminum in China has been slightly more than the demand for the current month since 2016, while the supply of raw aluminum in the world outside China is in the majority.Together, since 2016, the global aluminium continuous present short supply, on the one hand, sufficient support for aluminum prices and on the other hand, once the supply side of the domestic reform and environmental protection to leak in place, the supply shortage could cause prices to rise further.
Lead and zinc: supply and demand gap remains.
According to the latest data released by the international lead and zinc research group (ILZSG) in April 2017, global mineral zinc production in 2017 is about 13.7 million tons, an increase of 9.8% over the previous year.The production of refined zinc was about 14.08 million tons, an increase of 6.5 percent over the previous year, and the yield of refined zinc was lower than that of mineral zinc 3 percent.ILZSG expects the global demand for refined zinc in 2017 to be 14.3 million tons, a shortfall of 226,000 tons, and for two consecutive years, but less than in 2016.
Unlike zinc, lead production has risen in 2016-17.According to ILZSG, global lead production in 2017 will be about 4.92 million tons, an increase of 3.6 percent over the previous year.The yield of refined lead was about 11,1391 tons, an increase of 1.4% over the previous year.The global demand for refined lead is about 1139.3 million tons, and the supply and demand are basically balanced.
After experiencing a significant increase in 2016, the price of lead and zinc continued to rise in the first half of 2017.Due to the continuous low processing cost of lead and zinc concentrate, the profits of mining enterprises are considerable. In march, mining enterprises accelerated their release of production capacity, and the production of lead and zinc concentrates increased slightly in the first quarter of 2017.According to the travelling expenses statistics, 2017 foreign zinc concentrate production capacity estimate in 400000-600000 tons, but at present, glencore did not intend to in the first half of the year recovery zinc, global concentrate supply remains tight.Therefore, in the short term, there is still a gap in supply, but as the price is high, the profit of lead and zinc enterprises increases, and there is a possibility of compound production, and the supply shortage will gradually ease.
Tin: a small increase in supply and demand, price stability.
According to the international tin industry association (ITRI), the global output of refined tin was 3413,000 tons in 2016, with a consumption of 3522,000 tons.Malaysia's smelting company (MSC) estimates that the global production of refined tin will be 3.497 million tons in 2017, with a consumption of 351,000 tons and a shortage of about 5,000 tons, which is less than the shortage in 2016.Tin price is currently high, profitable in mines, so the possibility of another cut is small in mines, and as prices rebound, renewable tin supply will also increase, overall, tin supply in 2017 than in 2016.
In terms of demand, China's demand for tin dominates the world.In addition to China, the demand of other countries is basically maintained at the current level, and the growth of global tin demand mainly lies in China.ITRI predicts that by 2020, China's consumption of tin will increase to 12,000 tons, with a compound growth rate of 1.6% and a low growth rate.MSC expects global consumption of refined tin to grow at around 1% in 2017, with limited growth.Although growth is limited, or less than the output growth and demand growth, but in 2017 the global shortage of refined tin remain, prices will be supported, but tin price still need further release from demand.
Nickel: the economic recovery is widening the gap between supply and demand.
Since 2011, the excess supply of electrolytic nickel has experienced the last five years, nickel prices continued to fall, 2016 global shortage of nickel into phases, the first quarter of 2017, the gap between supply and demand continues to expand, on the one hand is the contraction of nickel ore supply cut and smelting production, on the other hand is an increase in demand.In the short term may be due to the domestic steel industry, environmental protection, such as limit production factors led to the decrease of the periodic demand, long-term perspective, benefits from China's policies and the global economic recovery, all the way of nickel demand will up the iron and steel industry demand will also be synchronous growth, so the nickel prices have rebounded space.
In conclusion, as the global economic continued positive momentum, developed economies show momentum, non-ferrous metals market supply and demand gap still remains at home and abroad, is expected in the second half of the non-ferrous metal prices will generally been strong shocks.